Colorado fares well on risky home value list

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PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. has released its list of the “riskiest” markets [1.2MB pdf] for home appreciation, and the news is generally good for Colorado’s homeowners.

The ranking is based on data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight House Price Index.

While Riverside-San Berandino-Ontario, Calif. tops the list, metropolitan areas such as Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Fla. and Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. were among the top 10 highest-risk markets.

The latter group, for example, scored higher than 500, indicating that there is a 50 percent chance that based on the OFHEO Home Price Index, appreciation will decline in the next two years.

The only Colorado metro area reported was Denver-Aurora which registered near the bottom of the 50 markets studied with a score of 156. That means there is a 15 percent chance home prices will decline in the next two years.

Other factors in Denver’s favor were its positive “home affordability” score and its continued low unemployment rate of 3.8 percent for second quarter 2007. Home appreciation through second quarter 2007 was 0.76 percent, dropping 1.45 percent from the same period in 2006.

Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston, Tex. all ranked at the bottom, showing excellent prospects for home appreciation, affordability and strong unemployment rates. Pittsburgh was 50th on the list with home appreciation of 3.5 percent recorded through second quarter 2007 and an unemployment rate of 4.07 percent.