Thredgold on recession odds, long-term forecast

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Vectra Bank Colorado corporate economist Jeff Thredgold said the likelihood of recession is 50 percent, although no one will know whether it’s happened until early next year.

Thredgold’s long-term economic forecast includes the following highlights:

  • National unemployment will move modestly higher this year before declining during 2009.
  • Inflation, which has been at its highest level in 16 years, will fall sharply over the long-term.
  • Oil prices will decline and the dollar will strengthen during the next 12 years.
  • The U.S. Consumer Price Index will increase this year, perhaps reaching 2.75 percent, but will drop closer to 2 percent if oil prices fall as Thredgold expects.