Thredgold on recession odds, long-term forecast
Vectra Bank Colorado corporate economist Jeff Thredgold said the likelihood of recession is 50 percent, although no one will know whether it’s happened until early next year.
Thredgold’s long-term economic forecast includes the following highlights:
- National unemployment will move modestly higher this year before declining during 2009.
- Inflation, which has been at its highest level in 16 years, will fall sharply over the long-term.
- Oil prices will decline and the dollar will strengthen during the next 12 years.
- The U.S. Consumer Price Index will increase this year, perhaps reaching 2.75 percent, but will drop closer to 2 percent if oil prices fall as Thredgold expects.