Retailers slogging through roller coaster of feast and famine

Consumers appear unconvinced that the country is headed for recovery anytime soon. April retail sales fell 0.4 percent compared to March and 1.7 percent year-over-year, according to the Commerce Department.

Following January and February, months in which national retail sales rose, the drops in March and April signal retailers that 2009 could be a year of uncertainty.

The arrival of warmer temperatures with the onset of spring helped the garden and sporting goods sectors. Sales at building material, garden equipment and supplies dealers rose 0.3 percent compared to March, while sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores sales also jumped 0.3 percent.

Consumers’ focus on necessities pushed health and personal care sales up 0.4 percent, but even with help from the Easter holiday, consumers shunned groceries, apparel and gifts. Sales at electronic and appliance stores dropped 2.8 percent, while groceries stores saw a 1 percent decline and apparel store sales dropped 3 percent.

While some economists have predicted the nation could jump into a recovery during the second half of 2009, it’s difficult to foresee a positive trend in the retail segment.

“Consumers remain heavily in debt, the saving rate is low, although at least it is in positive territory and home prices are still declining,” said Tucker Hart Adams, chief economist for U.S. Bank’s Rocky Mountain Region and president of the Adams Group. “So, I can’t see the rebound in consumer spending that is necessary for a sustainable recovery.”

Adams also said that it’s too easy to read trends into monthly retail figures.

“Economists rely too heavily on month-to-month changes in economic variables,” she said. “Whether or not retail sales rose or fell for one month in April shouldn’t influence one’s forecast.”

Instead, Adams cites larger, longer-term indicators when predicting an outlook for any economic recovery.

“I think the rate of decline in the economy will slow as we move through 2009, but I don’t expect growth until 2010 and I think the recovery will be very sluggish,” she said. “The bottom line is we’ll continue to lose hundreds of thousands of jobs a month; the unemployment rate will continue to rise; more people will be working part time or temporary jobs because they’ve had their hours cut or their position eliminated and equity in our homes will continue to shrink. We’ve dodged the bullet of total financial meltdown, so that’s good, but consumers are still in trouble.”

The Attic finds new home OCC

Veteran Old Colorado City merchant Charles Irwin has moved The Attic three blocks west on Colorado Avenue and increased his retail space by 200 feet.

The Attic’s new home is at 2716 W. Colorado Ave. Irwin purchased the location last July, but was renting it as residential property.

“It was in our long-term plans anyway to move to his location, but since our renters moved out, it made sense to move now,” Irwin said. “Luckily we refurbished the location back when we purchased it, so it’s brand new.”

Irwin will offer more of his most popular items at the new store: fragrance oils, body oils, incense, the store’s own line of candles, fused-glass jewelry, greeting cards and Birch Wood Roses.

“I was concerned about moving down here, but the week of Mother’s Day I had my best sales week since October,” he said. “We did better this Mother’s Day than we did last year. We sold something like 45 dozen of the roses.”

With Territory Days approaching May 23-25, Irwin’s says it’s difficult to hide his excitement as a business owner, even as retailers nationwide continue to struggle.

“I’m seeing the economy on the move,” he said. “People are purchasing things that they weren’t six months ago and I’ve had customers tell me they try to buy local, which is what I try to do with my suppliers, too.”

New grass-fed beef supplier

Panorama Meats Inc., an organic grass-fed beef supplier, has partnered with Arapahoe Ranch, a certified organic cattle operation, to supply organic grass-fed beef exclusively to Whole Foods Market stores in the Rocky Mountain region.

Operated by the Northern Arapahoe Indian Tribe on Wyoming’s Wind River Indian Reservation, Arapahoe Ranch raises an all-Angus herd on a year-round diet of grass and forbs. Its cattle never enter a feedlot, are never given antibiotics or growth-stimulating hormones and coexist with predators on Wyoming’s high plains.

The agreement comes after six months of negotiations between Panorama and the Northern Arapahoe Indian Tribe council and makes Whole Foods Market stores in Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas and Utah, the exclusive U.S. retailers of Arapahoe Ranch beef.

Whole Foods Market said in a news release that it plans to offer the certified organic beef at $1 per pound above natural beef choices.

Scott Prater covers retail for the Colorado Springs Business Journal.